A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
